FW: Allan Wiesnoski

wer   
http://www.jijou.org/qo/ursao/eyhnias/titwt.php    Allan Wiesnoski

A new report on those energy critical elements

Graedel is the co-author of a new report on those energy critical elements (ECE) from the American Physical Society and the Materials Research Society that was released Feb. 18

Link to report:

 

http://www.aps.org/policy/reports/popa-reports/loader.cfm?csModule=security/getfile&PageID=236337

wafering costs info

Hello Lita

 

I ran across this data today, thought I'd pass it along.  The numbers conflict maybe with those from the Solarnation report, maybe not depending on interpretation.  Source link: http://international.pv-tech.org/guest_blog/other_than_first_solar_who_holds_a_low_cost_manufacturing_benchmark?utm_source=PV-Tech&utm_campaign=dce13101ce-PV_Tech_Newsletter_07_02_2011&utm_medium=email

 

Allan

 

 

 

2011 SMC Update: Matt Gertken, STRATFOR

Matt Gertken, Geopolitical Analyst, STRATFOR: " 2011 Forecast and the Asia Pacific Outlook"

 

American economic recovery will continue; pessimistic about European debt crisis resolution; German pressure on southern European nations creating discord; no real change in N. vs. S. Korea relations expected through 2011 but stay tuned; change of N. Korean leadership in 2012 will introduce stability concerns.

 

China: Chinese export sector woes: Export collapse and recovery 2008-10; Growth slowing in 2011; Global demand; Rising costs; Labor strikes; Currency wars; Loss-making exporters?

Consumption rate is 38% of GDP vs. 58% for "healthy" economy, 70% for USA; drop in investment driven growth/new lending is a major risk; correction to lending practices by 2015 needed, not likely in 2011 due to build of non-performing loans (reaching $900B);current 4^th generation leadership will changeover in 2012;

2011 SMC Update; Materials Market Analysis Panel

Materials Market Analysis Panel

Moderator: Lita Shon-Roy, Techcet Group

Panelists:

Karey Holland, Partner & Senior Technical Analyst

Michael Corbett, Managing Partner, Linx Consulting

Jan Vardaman, President, TechSearch International

Dan Tracy, Senior Director, Industry Research and Statistics, SEMI

 

Holland: Recycling may become more important and have impact on price going forward; expect CMP pad suppliers to shrink through closings or mergers; "3 most critical materials for near term": for FEoL, ALD materials for HK gates: Hf, Zr, La; for BEoL, Mn & Co will increase importance, Ta will drop; Ru will not proliferate;

Corbett: may be some move to less leading edge node devices, into 200mm nodes for example, bumping up demands for materials and consumables used  in those existing manufacturing lines; China market has many obstacles for materials suppliers along with IP concerns, no resolution foreseen; "3 most critical materials for near term": FEol materials are most critical; Ru cost will be an obstacle;

Vardaman: supplier consolidation is leading to concerns and legal issues in EU;  "3 most critical materials for near term": Cu fluctuations can impact major segments;

Tracy: move into lower nodes raising questions about 6-inch material availability; "3 most critical materials for near term": Cu wire transition can drive cost equations, reduce gold positions

2011 SMC Update: Dan Tracy, SEMI

Dan Tracy, Senior Director,

Industry Research and Statistics, SEMI: "SEMI Materials Outlook"

 

Semi market growth will be modest, 6 & 5%, 2011 & 2012; < 5% growth in capex spending in 2011 & 2012, hit 12% of total Semi revenue; 8 & 9% growth in fab capacity in 2011 & 2012, led by Memory & Foundry; 50% increase in msi of silicon by 2012; PR chemicals 7 ancillaries growth will be 10% yty through 2012; materials spending growth expected about 5% yty through 2012; Japan is leading materials market, Taiwan surpassed NA; packaging materials will grow 3.5% 2011, 1.7% in 2012.

2011 SMC Update: Jan Vardaman, TechSearch International

Jan Vardaman, President, TechSearch International: "Challenges and Opportunities for Materials in Backend Processing and Assembly"

 

Packaging challenges: new ILDs and pad stacks introducing stress issues, worse with Pb-free bumps and ELK; 16% of all IC shipments will be Flip-Chip & WLP; assembly price pressure driving Cu replacement of Au; 2010 capex spending was 2.7X that of 2009, 300mm WLP a leading cause; Flip Chip will grow 15% through 2014; shift is towards Cu pillar; this will drive growth in plating chemistries, underfills, substrates; WLP growth will be 12.5% through 2014, driving growth in dielectrics for reliability improvement, looking for low cure temp, lower k, high breakdown strengths; Fan-out WLP packages will emerge as new technology; 300mm WLP will see capacity shortage near term; WLP highest I/O count is 309 by Fujitsu.

 

3D & High Density packaging trends: smart phones universally featuring stacks; tablets also making heavy use of stacks, WLP, package-on-package (PoP); PoP will triple by 2014; expecting TSV to shift out as high volume production technology from 2011 to 2012; TSVs /3D IC is expected to reach major market size (>3M 300mm wpy) in 2015; TSV challenges are via filling, improved chemistries; joining processes like direct bonding/Cu pillar/etc.; thinning & handling, singulation, inspection & FA; a long laundry list of issues still remain to be resolved for TSV, opening door for alternatives such as stacked silicon interconnect (Xilinx), Chip-on-Chip, PoP, etc.