2011 SMC Update: Matt Gertken, STRATFOR

Matt Gertken, Geopolitical Analyst, STRATFOR: " 2011 Forecast and the Asia Pacific Outlook"

 

American economic recovery will continue; pessimistic about European debt crisis resolution; German pressure on southern European nations creating discord; no real change in N. vs. S. Korea relations expected through 2011 but stay tuned; change of N. Korean leadership in 2012 will introduce stability concerns.

 

China: Chinese export sector woes: Export collapse and recovery 2008-10; Growth slowing in 2011; Global demand; Rising costs; Labor strikes; Currency wars; Loss-making exporters?

Consumption rate is 38% of GDP vs. 58% for "healthy" economy, 70% for USA; drop in investment driven growth/new lending is a major risk; correction to lending practices by 2015 needed, not likely in 2011 due to build of non-performing loans (reaching $900B);current 4^th generation leadership will changeover in 2012;