2011SMC Update: Michael Corbett, Linx Consulting

Michael Corbett, Managing Partner Linx Consulting: "Emerging Opportunities and Markets for Chemicals and Materials in Advanced Devices"

 

Opportunities & trends: sub-32nm market is materials-innovation intensive; FEoL cleaning will need new materials, there will be a major jump when 450mm single wafer cleaning enters the market; wet-only HDIS chemistries is a major need; DRAM cell developments will drive new materials such as SiGe, Ru; NAND will introduce new 3D structures; advanced ALD and CVD precursors will triple through 2014; mask counts will rise by 20% through 2014, impacting all phases such as PR, ARC, etc.; CMP use and material demands will see moderate growth through 2014; High Selective Etching will grow in importance and resource requirements as new materials are introduced; Related markets such as Solar will have impact on Semi.

2011 SMC Update: Karey Holland, Techcet Group

Karey Holland, Partner & Senior Technical Analyst, Techcet Group: "The Materials Age: IC Performance Takes Flight Through Innovation"

 

Chinese consumer spending ramp will continue; NAND will be leading IC product; legacy of low price from recession will continue, introducing trade-offs such as sputter target purity vs.price, etc.; BEoL trends for Cu/Low-K/Air Gap/Carbon nanotubes, barriers moving into Ru, Co, Mn; FEoL trends are Hf going to Zr, composites such as HfZrLa coming into play; HKMG continues, Si Nanowire & Graphene coming up on radar; 3D/TSV packaging a major effort; Collaboration to "outsource R&D" is major trend, along with M&A for innovative technologies from smaller companies; Chinese control of Rare Earth / Critical Elements present potential "gotcha" moments; "Local content" requirements throughout Asia will introduce changes to status quo.

 

SiC use will grow, replace quartz in some widespread apps; HKMG precursors will be seeing significant growth through 2015 to > $100M; EUV will push out to < 20nm; DP with ArFi will be major technology in interim; PR market will see CAGR of about 11% thru 2015; ARC use will continue increase; Cu use will expand as < 45nm IC production increases in overall % of delivered ICs (expect about 50% delivered ICs to be 130nm thru ); Basic wet chemical use will see minimal growth as users try to improve green profile; NF3 experiencing constrained delivery due to some production issues, industry is looking for replacements due to availability and greenhouse concerns; Ta use for sputtering will see price rise due to "conflict" concerns and reduced supplies; CMP market seeing larger market share by Asia-local suppliers; use of dilute slurries can impede growth if successful on a broader base; 15% growth in PV materials in 2011.

2011 SMC Update: Business Environment/Supply Chain Analysis Panel

Business Environment/Supply Chain Analysis Panel

Presentations:

Norm Armour, VP and general manager, Fab 8, GLOBALFOUNDRIES

 

Major concerns: material costs looking likely to @x going from 40nm to 28nm; supply base consolidation limiting flexibility; material shortages occurring daily (NF3 availability ius a major problem); hoarding of materials in some regions.; lower margin material availability issues; other industries competing for materials; material use not factored into advanced technologies; RoHAS etc regulations causing more problems than not;

 

Tim Hendry, Vice President, Fab Materials Operation, Intel Corporation: "Affordable Materials with Supply Chain Innovation "

 

Material innovation on track for 22nm node; Equipment supply chain is a good model for Materials; Supply Chain performance lowers fab cycle time, response time, net inventory; future focus is on "Right Price Point", Innovative product, better availability, and improved social responsibility

 

Roger Gossett, Senior Manager Gas, Chemical and Wafers, Global Procurement, Freescale Semiconductor: "The Next Generation Supply Chain"

 

Assurance of supply is critical need; leading to dual sourcing necessity; China material export license limits are a problem; "blood Mineral" issues

 

Jeremy How, Electronics Materials Strategic Sourcing Manager, Air Products

 

Have to deal with their own sub-suppliers in a similar fashion as their end customers; conflict minerals are managed as appropriately as possible

 

Kurt Carlsen, director, Strategic Sourcing, Air Liquide Electronics

 

Turn on from their sub-suppliers lagged; Fab demand increasing with little warning; raw material shortages occurring; low inventories impacting ability to ramp; some sub-suppliers walking away from Semi market; sudden focus on reliability of supply emphasized with little forewarning; need better forecasts

 

Panel Discussion:

Armour: need to consider entire economic ecosystem in terms of material usage – can't put a lock on future supplies without understanding who else may be impacted;

Hendry: some material use rates growing exponentially (single wafer wet cleans,..);  need to develop effective collaboration strategy;

How: endless pursuit of lower price is compromising the ability to supply materials that have short shelf life

Carlsen: customers need to trade off day to day procurement vs. long term sourcing strategies to secure reliable suppliers over long term

2011 SMC update: Johannes Kaeppeler, Aixtron

Johannes Kaeppeler, Vice President, Technology, Aixtron AG: "MOCVD of III / V Semiconductor – From Material Research to an Established Production Technology"

 

Aixtron has wide range of deposition equipment & technologies extending to carbon nanotube formation systems.  Major revenue-generating product ( > 90%) is used for MOCVD of LEDs.  Reactor design strategy features multiple layer growth within a single chamber.  15um/hor dep rate of GaN effective limit currently.  6" is maximum substrate size at this time.  Total dep time for overall device can reach 8 hours, limits effectiveness of automation for cost reduction.  Move to larger substrates & batch sizes in progress.  Lack of industry roadmaps impacts ability to justify R&D ROI etc.    Market is lagging Semi by about 10 years in terms of overall maturity.  III-V development for GaAs solar PV also in production.  Latest efforts directed towards III-V silicon devices.  Future will include evaluation of in-line process toolset.

2011 SMC Update: David Bour, Applied Materials

David Bour, Chief Technologist, LED Product Technology, Applied Materials, "Epitaxial Nitride Semiconductors for Solid Sate Lighting"

 

Chip size is growing up from 1mm2 current typical size.  Typical pyrolytic MOCVD dep is NH3 rich, with premium on purity.  Low pyrolysis of NH3 drives very high NH3 concentration, room for improvement exists.  Temperature control is the main knob for growth uniformity.  Critical layers are on the order of 3nm thick, can grow in seconds, requires high reactor exchange rates.  Mg precursor used for p-doping is difficult to control in production. 

 

Wavelength targeting optimization is a major challenge with respect to reproducibility.  Bulk delivery of precursors provides material purity benefits. Defects result in lower light output at given current level.  High interest in other substrates.  Sapphire is current best known material but SiC and Si are of high interest.

2011 SMC Update: Rommel Noufi, NREL

Rommel Noufi, Principal Scientist and Group Manager of Thin Film PV, National Renewable Energy Laboratory "High Efficiency CIGS Solar Cells: "Technology Trends and Materials

Requirement"

 

This talk is primarily only CIGS-specific, not c-Si or CdTe.  Notable only 3 equipment-only players in the overall CIS  marketplace, all others are panel manufacturers.  CIGS is closely behind c-Si performance, should close the gap in relatively near term.  Good performance on flexible substrates indicates high potential to compete using low temperature processes. 

 

Long term stability is a major challenge to hit 25 year lifetime requirement.  Passivation/barrier performance of end module needs improvement. Regarding processing, uniformity over a large area is a problem, which needs to be optimized to also improve output and yield.  A role for in-line process monitoring control on a comprehensive basis for composition etc. remains unfilled.  Material engineering needs to be pursued to improve the conversion efficiency.  15% CIGS conversion efficiency is enough today to promise good market position going forward.  Scalability from Pilot Line to high volume Manufacturing is the major immediate hurdle for the top end producers.  Cost of the CIGS-layer materials and better TCO films are the highest cost benefit materials areas where improvement is sought, followed by substrate / encapsulation.  "Five 9's" purity not necessarily required for the CIGS layer materials.  6 minute or more CIGS dep time must be reduced to around 1 minute.

SMC 2011 Update; Joe Berwind, Principal, Alternative Energy Investing

Joe Berwind, Principal, Alternative Energy Investing:" "High Efficiency CIGS Solar Cells:  Technology Trends and Materials Requirement"

 

The major parameter of interest for market penetration is LCOE.  Cost per Watt is not a sufficient parameter to assess benefits.  "Materials & Processes Enable markets".   Location & solar irradiation are factors that vary geographically and thus by markets and must be included in any analysis.  Process and materials differences are reflected in LCOE better than with Cost/Watt.  Short-term pull-in growth in the market will not sustain, subsidy cuts are undermining the longer term market.