Karey Holland, Partner & Senior Technical Analyst, Techcet Group: "The Materials Age: IC Performance Takes Flight Through Innovation"
Chinese consumer spending ramp will continue; NAND will be leading IC product; legacy of low price from recession will continue, introducing trade-offs such as sputter target purity vs.price, etc.; BEoL trends for Cu/Low-K/Air Gap/Carbon nanotubes, barriers moving into Ru, Co, Mn; FEoL trends are Hf going to Zr, composites such as HfZrLa coming into play; HKMG continues, Si Nanowire & Graphene coming up on radar; 3D/TSV packaging a major effort; Collaboration to "outsource R&D" is major trend, along with M&A for innovative technologies from smaller companies; Chinese control of Rare Earth / Critical Elements present potential "gotcha" moments; "Local content" requirements throughout Asia will introduce changes to status quo.
SiC use will grow, replace quartz in some widespread apps; HKMG precursors will be seeing significant growth through 2015 to > $100M; EUV will push out to < 20nm; DP with ArFi will be major technology in interim; PR market will see CAGR of about 11% thru 2015; ARC use will continue increase; Cu use will expand as < 45nm IC production increases in overall % of delivered ICs (expect about 50% delivered ICs to be 130nm thru ); Basic wet chemical use will see minimal growth as users try to improve green profile; NF3 experiencing constrained delivery due to some production issues, industry is looking for replacements due to availability and greenhouse concerns; Ta use for sputtering will see price rise due to "conflict" concerns and reduced supplies; CMP market seeing larger market share by Asia-local suppliers; use of dilute slurries can impede growth if successful on a broader base; 15% growth in PV materials in 2011.
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