Moderator: Rick Hill, chairman of the Board and CEO, Novellus Systems
Panelists: Tim Arcuri, CITI; Avinash Kant, DA Davidson; Satya Kumar, Credit Suisse; Krish Sankar, Bank of America/Merrill Lynch
“Sister Mary Ricky”, aka Rick Hills, appeared to review the report cards of the “pupils” on the panel. The panel presented a review of their performance, with a short summary of each below. Sister Mary seemed to take them all to task to one extent or another, as might be expected.
The CITI outlook from Tim Arcuri was 20% up for Foundry, DRAM down 50%, NANA up 90% and Logic/others up 10% for Capex for 2011, overall up 5% in total. The loading for demand will be front-half heavy. M&A activity is expected to be high due to record cash flow. Litho tool shipments in Q1 & Q2 will be significant.
Satya Kumar, of Credit Suisse forecast strong product cycles for Handsets, Tablets, and PCs, with a note that not all products will succeed given the large number of products expected. 2011 capex will be up 5 – 10%y/y, expect 2012 to rise y/y as well.
Krish Sankar, of Bank of America/Merrill Lynch, 2011 revenues up greater than 5% y/y; tablet growth will boost NAND demand; 5% y/y Capex growth in 2011, pretty even throughout the year; DRAM market is not strong through 2011; the biggest shift in this cycle is the multiple compression in the group, will lead to foundry buys.
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